Friday, 15 May 2015

Who would be an opinion pollster? Why did it all go wrong on election day?

Since the general election, I've been scouring the press for explanations of why the opinion polls were off-piste with the final outcome which saw the Conservatives win with a clear majority, rather than even votes for the two major parties as predicted by numerous polls before voting day. There are no definitive answers but they reveal the real difficulty in trying to predict people's behaviour, particularly when dealing with something so important as a general election.

Here are some of the theories that may be at play here:

  • Online panels are wearing out... respondents are not paying as much attention to answering the questions as we would like them to and are clicking as quickly as possible to gain their incentive.
  • Telephone surveys are not reaching representative samples due to fewer households using landline, only answering calls from known numbers,not wanting to spend time on the phone answering a long survey, having our mobiles on silent, etc.
  • Modelling based on previous election results or estimated turnouts are not appropriate - the turnout in 2015 was up 1% to 66.1% for the UK but leaped from 63.8% to 71.1% in Scotland following Nicola Sturgeon's strong and successful campaigning (UK Political Info, 2015)
  • Voters are not inclined to discuss their voting habits, may not have decided at the point of interview, or may be ashamed of their voting intentions if it is not seen as socially acceptable or deviates from their family's views / class heritage.
  • Voters change their mind or vote tactically as they are swayed by campaigning, celebrity endorsements, the results of opinion polls, or as they become aware of election manifestos, or election values quizzes shared on social media.
  • Last minute PR gimmicks are damaging to voter intentions such as the #EdStone manifesto where even the supposedly neutral BBC showed edited images of Ed Miliband compared to Moses. 

Of course, it may well be that there were major flaws in the complex methodologies employed by the polling companies that are yet to be revealed but I'm not convinced. It's a complex process and there will always be room for improvement (for any survey) in the way we phrase and order questions. Should they measure people's values instead and match those values to the parties? Should they ask people's voting intentions if they voted today? Should they be asked who they voted for last time and if they changed their mind at any point? 

I think that, within the margin of error (generally +/- 3%) that the polls were probably right... voters felt at the time of the interview that they would probably vote for [x] and then... they spoke to their friends and family, or watched an interview, or saw something on social media, or took offence at a gimmick or statement, or thought perhaps things wouldn't turn out quite how they hoped and... they changed their mind. So the opinion polls and the exit polls could both have been right all along, it's just that what we say we'll do and what we actually end up doing are entirely different based on numerous theories of consumer behaviour*.

Read our post on the Scottish Referendum here.
Read more about the differences between online and postal polling in The Guardian here.

*Some of which you can read about on our blog but lots more to come.


Thursday, 14 May 2015

3 ways HE lecturers can use social media as a learning tool

Using social media as a learning tool has being a running theme for me this semester. As a marketer and market researcher, I find Twitter to be a valuable depository of links to white papers, conference papers, research findings and best practice guidance. LinkedIn helps me to build contacts and relationships as I grow my network as well as highlighting useful collateral I may have missed on Twitter. And of course, there are many other social media platforms that have value to the marketer too. I was guilty of assuming that the digital natives I teach are tuned into social media in the same way, but I was wrong; certainly, social media for social purposes but that professional angle wasn't as clear to them.

There is a clear rationale for using social media with business students - employability is of course key to that but I've found that they are often so focused on using text books and journal articles as references in their assignments that they forget that professional practice is just as important to business people as the founding principles.

Here are 3 ways I've used social media as a learning tool this term:


  1. Students were asked to create a student-led creative campaign to promote the business school to potential undergraduates or postgraduates using social media with the message that 'learning has never been so much fun'. Key learning outcomes were for them to understand the importance of a creative idea, how promotional tools and media need to be integrated to work effectively, and the importance of marketing metrics. This was a quick and dirty one week activity but students developed a range of great ideas including a Facebook page with mini-blogs from international students; a fun set of images adopting the 'keep calm and carry on' theme; and a video for sharing featuring student life in the style of a cartoon strip. This learning by doing exercise gave students the chance to understand the limitations of their approach and the challenge of developing good content that is shareable and genuinely 'fun'.
  2. Getting students to set up a Twitter profile and find 25 people or companies to follow in their field of interest. Concentrating their efforts to select useful contacts was a challenge but this helped them to understand how they could build an effective network and start to see relevant content.
  3. Free blogging tools such as WordPress, Google Blogger or Weebly were used to set up an e-portfolio. Students were asked to select a marketing topic of their choice and challenged to discover 'what is best professional practice in this area?' by using social media. This taught them how to critically evaluate the quality of professional sources, how to search for the right kinds of material and how to direct their information search by setting clear objectives. This was an activity that took place over the semester partly in-class and also through self-directed learning. It required motivation, dedication, and a curiosity in the marketing topic to succeed. The jury is still out on the results but formative feedback told me that this was an activity and an alternative assessment method that they really enjoyed.
Student-centred learning and applying the theory to practice work really well for me when helping students to understand the value of social media to the marketer and to every business. What has worked for you?


 #learning #digitallearning #edtech

Wednesday, 13 May 2015

Walkers Crisps and Gary Lineker go together as well as salt and vinegar...

Walkers Crisps' latest promotional campaign (published 08 May 2015) is so good you'll want to share it, but they're relying on the fact that you still won't share your crisps! The strength of their brand proposition relies on their consistent ability to deliver good quality, moreish snacks, in a range of traditional flavours as well as delivering new innovations in taste and texture that customers want to keep to themselves. And they've been doing this since 1995 with the ex-England and Spurs football player and now sports broadcaster, Gary Lineker OBE as their brand ambassador. 

The link between crisps and football may seem tenuous but Lineker kicked off his career with Leicester City, which is where Henry Walker, a butcher, founded the company in 1948. He had to diversify to keep his workers busy when meat was scarce in post-war Britain; thankfully potatoes were not rationed and our favourite crisps brand was born. But this is not the only reason for using the ex-footballer to sell their wares... he was football's Mr Nice Guy and was never cautioned for foul play, nor did he receive a yellow or red card. It is this belief in his character that has connected him to the Walkers brand so successfully for so long. It is only the lure of a packet of Walkers that can make him a tiny bit nasty, leading to a multitude of creative ideas that are still paying dividends.

The latest creative idea sees Lineker eating his lunch on a bench and refusing to share his packet of crisps with his colleague. Revenge comes when the co-worker scrunches up his baguette and throws crumbs over Gary who is immediately caught in a pigeon scrum. The campaign is focused on a sales promotion 'Win a free lunch' where 1 in 6 packs will win customers a free lunch up to the value of £4 from selected outlets. The advert is supported by digital and in-store marketing materials. Walkers also encourages customers to join the conversation using the hashtag #CantHelpButSmile.

Walkers haven't changed their creative idea for 20 years but by using a consistently popular brand ambassador who fits well with their brand values and continually evolving the idea into new formats and story lines, they have kept their place as UK market leader and developed a strong and endearing brand personality embodied by Gary Lineker. You can watch the ad below.


 

You can read more about Walkers in this Superbrands Case Study here.